Theories of change (ToCs) are models of how an intervention is expected to bring about changes in results of interest—the benefits. Robust ToCs spell out the conditions under which the intervention should “work,” that is, bring about or contribute to the desired benefits. But rarely does the ToC address issues of the future sustainability of the benefits from the intervention.

Abstract: Theories of change (ToCs) are models of how an intervention is expected to bring about changes in results of interest—the benefits. Robust ToCs spell out the conditions under which the intervention should “work,” that is, bring about or contribute to the desired benefits. But rarely does the ToC address issues of the future sustainability of the benefits from the intervention.

Abstract:

This ahead of print version may differ slightly from the final published version.

It is frequently assumed and not contested that evaluation should play a significant role in budgeting and, more specifically, in expenditure reviews. This article argues otherwise: that evaluation is neither fit nor designed to play such a role. Rather, if there is a desire by budget officials for credible evidence on the performance of interventions, then they need to invest in a different form of evaluation, namely, expenditure evaluations, separate and distinct from ministry-based evaluation.

Although theories of change are frequently discussed in the evaluation literature and there is general agreement on what a theory of change is conceptually, there is actually little agreement beyond the big picture of just what a theory of change comprises, what it shows, how it can be represented, and how it can be used. This article outlines models for theories of change and their development that have proven quite useful for both straightforward and more complex interventions.

Models for theories of change vary widely as do how they are used. What constitutes a good or robust theory of change has not been discussed much. This article sets out and discusses criteria for robust theories of change. As well, it discusses how these criteria can be used to undertake a vigorous assessment of a theory of change. A solid analysis of a theory of change can be extremely useful, both for designing or assessing the designs of an intervention as well as for the design of monitoring regimes and evaluations.

Although theories of change are frequently discussed in the evaluation literature and there is general agreement on what a theory of change is conceptually, there is actually little agreement beyond the big picture of just what a theory of change comprises, what it shows, how it can be represented, and how it can be used. This article outlines models for theories of change and their development that have proven quite useful for both straightforward and more complex interventions.