Ian Skelton


Sensitivity Analysis in Multi-Criteria Decision Aid: A Demonstration of Child Care Need Assessment


Multicriteria Decision Aid (MCDA) can provide a useful framework for many types of evaluation problems. The article focuses on sensitivity analysis in MCDA and uses a sample problem of establishing priorities for child care service. The main steps in MCDA applications are outlined and some detail is provided on three types of aggregation procedures and on sensitivity analyses appropriate for each. Two general strategies for sensitivity analysis are discussed: comparative analysis, which is suitable for data on any scale; and calculative analysis, which requires cardinal data. Examples show how sensitivity analysis can be used to concentrate mediation efforts on the most important assumptions of an evaluation.